At the outset, CPA thought it valuable to get different perspectives on the state of the world from leading scholars in each of the major powers.

With these concerns in mind, the Center for Preventive Action (CPA) at the Council on Foreign Relations launched the Managing Global Disorder project with the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York. The prospect of a war breaking out between two or more of the major powers is no longer unimaginable. The prospect of a war breaking out between two or more of the major powers, something that was generally considered to be risibly improbable just a few years ago, is no longer unimaginable. If anything, mistrust and friction is steadily growing among them. The major powers either do not comprehend the risks of the current transitional period or they do not have a clear vision for a new international order that will be broadly acceptable and thus considered legitimate by most other states. Where all this leads is by no means certain. This shift has caused a public backlash against globalization not only in the United States but also in many Western countries. In addition, the benefits of the U.S-led order and, in particular, the many international agreements that the United States has championed to open up the world to the free flow of goods, services, ideas, and people, no longer look so promising-not least to many Americans. China and Russia, along with lesser regional powers, have taken advantage of this reticence in recent years to assert their own interests and to undermine the United States’ international standing and authority. The United States is also growing more reluctant to bear the costs of world leadership, especially when it comes to using military force. The international order largely constructed by the United States in the aftermath of World War II is still very much in evidence, but, at the same time, the global distribution of power is inexorably shifting with the rise of new powers as well as influential nonstate actors. Just such a situation appears to exist today.

Director General, Russian International Affairs Council

Principles of the changing world order